Remember when we poked fun at the so-called housing experts and their 2025 market guesses? Well, now it’s the mortgage gurus’ turn—yep, the ones who get paid big bucks to tell us what their crystal balls say.
ResiClub just dropped a roundup of 2025 mortgage rate predictions from 14 firms, and let’s just say, if this were a group project, they’d all be getting a “needs improvement.”
Here’s the lineup:
- Redfin: 6.80% (Clearly, their crystal ball needs a software update).
- Capital Economics: 6.75% (Still banking on us crying over interest rates).
- Hunter Housing Economics: 6.60% (A little less pessimistic but still a buzzkill).
- CoreLogic: 6.50% (Not bad, but I wouldn’t pop the champagne yet).
- Wells Fargo: 6.41% (Trying to be the Goldilocks of predictions—just right).
- Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.40% (Apparently, Wells’ backup singer).
- Fannie Mae & Moody’s: 6.30% (Twinning, with a “meh” vibe).
- Morgan Stanley & BrightMLS: 6.25% (They must’ve copied each other’s homework).
- Realtor.com: 6.20% (Trying to sweeten the pot, but still a no).
- NAHB: 6.12% (Probably stopped guessing halfway through).
- Goldman Sachs: 6.10% (Could you please share some optimism?).
- NAR: 5.80% (The bold kid in the class—aiming high, or should I say, low?).
The Average Guess: 6.34%
So, the consensus? By the time we’re ringing in 2026, your mortgage rate might still be hovering at 6.34%. If you were hoping for sub-6% rates, sorry, folks—you’ll have to keep dreaming.
What’s Changed?
Funny you ask. Back before the Fed decided to cut rates in September, most of these firms were singing a different tune. Back then, they were whispering sweet nothings (and, I’ll admit, so was I) about rates falling below 6% in late 2025. Now? It’s like they’ve all been to the same gloomy pep rally.
My Take: A Mortgage Mood Swing
Let’s be real—mortgage rate predictions are like weather forecasts in Phoenix: nobody remembers last week’s wrong guess when there’s another sunny day ahead. Still, these numbers matter when it comes to setting client expectations.
Here’s what I’m telling my residential buyers: plan for 6%-ish rates, but remember, no one truly knows what will happen (no crystal balls here). In the meantime, buckle up, budget wisely, and maybe hold off on that Tesla upgrade.
What’s your strategy for 2025? Are you banking on a NAR miracle or sticking with Goldman’s doom-and-gloom outlook? Let me know!
AriZona Real Estate insider 
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