AriZona Real Estate insider!

The latest Tempe Tribune headline reads: “Tempe Faces Ominous Housing Crunch.” And they’re not wrong. Tempe’s latest housing approvals read like a victory lap for city planners. But let’s be real: this is triage, not transformation.

The city greenlit Dorsey Station (400 affordable units + a glorified convenience store) and Rio 2100 Residences (315 market-rate units on a remediated Superfund site). Add in Danelle Plaza’s rezoning for 630 units, and you’ve got over 1,300 dwellings in the pipeline. Sounds promising—until you realize Tempe’s losing five low-income units a day. At that pace, we’re just buying time while the foundation crumbles.

🧠 The Supply-Demand Disconnect

Tempe’s landlocked footprint means vertical is the only way forward. But high-rise doesn’t equal high-access. The city’s own data suggests its entire affordable housing supply could vanish in 15 years. That’s not a forecast—it’s a countdown.

And yet, projects like Dorsey Station face more red tape than their market-rate neighbors across Apache. Why? Because affordable housing still carries stigma. Even though 60% of Tempe residents are renters—including the mayor.

📊 What the Market Looks Like Right Now

Tempe’s real estate market is walking a tightrope between balance and bottleneck:

• Inventory: 3.62 months of supply—tightening slightly from last month but up 10% year-over-year. This signals a balanced market, not a buyer’s or seller’s edge.
• New listings: 146 homes, median list price $499,999
• Active listings: 408 homes, median list price $499,949
• Pending listings: Median price $490,000, averaging 56 days on market
• Sold listings: Median price $470,750, also 56 DOM, with a 97.54% sold-to-list ratio—homes are selling close to asking, but taking longer to move (up 47% MoM in days on market)

This is a market where timing matters. Sellers need patience. Buyers have room to negotiate—but not forever.

🏘️ What Real Revitalization Looks Like

Revitalization isn’t just about density—it’s about dignity. Dorsey Station sits on a decaying strip mall that’s been vacant for years. The city bought the land, picked a developer, and mandated affordability. That’s a start. But the proposed grocery store? 11,000 square feet—barely a blip compared to the 30,000–50,000 sq ft standard. Residents deserve more than a token upgrade.

🌆 Community Pulse

Tempe isn’t just rooftops and rent rolls. It’s culture, connectivity, and community:

• Mill Avenue District still pulses with nightlife and local flavor
• Tempe Center for the Arts anchors the city’s creative identity
• ASU and major employers keep the economic engine running
• Light rail and transit make it one of the most walkable, bikeable cities in the Valley

This isn’t just a housing story—it’s a lifestyle equation.

💡 My Take

Tempe’s housing strategy needs a demand-first lens. Stop treating renters like transients. Start treating them like the backbone of the city. If we want to preserve Tempe’s multicultural, multimodal soul, we need projects that scale—not stall.

And if you’re holding property or investing locally, expect slow, steady appreciation—especially near Apache, Mill, and downtown. The real upside may come if rates ease and Tempe’s new housing pipeline proves livable and scalable.

If you’re looking to invest, Tempe is the best place where I believe prices will continue to appreciate slowly and steadily. Tempe is still in its growth phase—once it’s fully built out, I expect prices to rival Old Town Scottsdale or South Scottsdale.

I’ve said it before: for those chasing “Arcadia Lite” (which I believe is BS), there’s real Arcadia—and nothing else. For those who know, know. If you’re looking for a teardown play, maybe it’s time to drive through Tempe. There are teardown opportunities here with a smart lease-first strategy: rent it out early, then sell down the road—if you’re tired of making too much cash on the rental.

Main image is from the article about “Shorehaven is the first phase of South Pier, the $1.8 billion master-planned waterfront destination featuring residential, dining, entertainment, shopping, hotel, and office developments.“