As we head into the second half of 2025, the national housing market shows signs of cooling, stabilizing, or depending on where you look—a mix of both. Several national forecasts and real-time market indicators give us a peek at where things are going in H2 2025.
Let’s start with the big picture.
🌍 National Housing Market Forecasts (H2 2025)
Data and sources from NowBAM, ResiClub, Zillow, Fannie Mae, Wells Fargo, NAHB, MBA, and Axios:
| Source | 2025 Home Price Forecast |
|---|---|
| Cotality | +4.3% YoY (Apr 2025–Apr 2026) |
| Fannie Mae | +4.1% YoY |
| Zillow | −1.7% YoY (Mar 2025–Mar 2026) |
| Wells Fargo | +3.0% YoY |
| J.P. Morgan | Flat to +3% YoY |
🏘️ Existing Home Sales Forecast
| Source | Existing Home Sales (2025) |
| NAR | 4.30 million |
| MBA | 4.26 million |
| Fannie Mae | 4.23 million |
| Zillow | 4.12 million |
📉 Mortgage Rate Forecast
| Source | Mortgage Rate (2025) |
| MBA | 6.6% |
| NAR | 6.4% |
| Fannie Mae | 6.1% |
💵 Total Mortgage Originations
| Source | Total Originations (2025) |
| Fannie Mae | $1.99 trillion |
| MBA | $2.07 trillion |
📊 Other Key National Indicators
- Inventory: Rising in many markets
- Buyer demand: Slowing due to affordability
- Mortgage rates: Holding around 6.5–7%
- Builder confidence: Falling (NAHB index down to 32)
- Regional gaps: Midwest strong, Sun Belt flat or declining
🏛️ What This Means for Phoenix
The Phoenix metro area doesn’t always follow national trends exactly, but it does rhyme with them. Here’s how we’re looking on the ground:
🔢 Quick Phoenix Market Snapshot
| Metric | Mid-2025 Trend |
| Median Home Price | ~$445,000 (flat to −1%) |
| Inventory | ↑ ~25% YoY |
| Days on Market | 45+ days |
| Price Reductions | >35% of listings |
| Mortgage Rates (local avg) | ~6.7% |
| Rent Growth | Flat to slightly down |
🏡 Segment by Segment in Phoenix
Condos & Townhomes
- ⬇️ Prediction: –1% to –3%
- High HOA fees + rising supply = buyer hesitation
Single-Family Homes ($400K–$700K)
- ⬇️ Prediction: Flat to –2%
- Outlying areas like Queen Creek & Buckeye softening faster
Luxury Homes ($1.5M+ in PV, Arcadia, Biltmore)
- ⬆️ Prediction: Flat to +2%
- Demand steady for finished, turn-key homes. Fixers are sitting
Rentals & Multifamily
- ⬇️ Prediction: Flat or small declines
- Rent growth has stalled as inventory catches up
🔎 What to Watch in H2 2025
- Fed Rate Decisions: Will we finally see a cut?
- Fall Inventory Surge: Motivated sellers may flood the market
- Out-of-State Demand: Still a wildcard (especially from CA/WA/OR)
- Builder Discounts: Watch for buydowns and closing cost incentives
🔬 My Take
Look, I don’t care who you are—whether the smartest person in the room, the dumbest, or myself included—nobody knows the future in real estate. Right now, I’m not seeing a crash because a crash only happens when something shows up unexpectedly. These predictions are a mixture of analyzing the data, what I’m seeing here in Phoenix on the ground, and yes, asking ChatGPT.
So, if you need to buy or must buy, then get with an agent or advisor who knows the local market. Maybe offer less and stick to your budget—but if you find the perfect home, go for it. Real estate is not the stock market. It’s always been a long-term play. And if you’re like me and Warren Buffett, then you still live in your primary residence—which, by the way, has already tripled in value for me. I’m not selling. Ever! “Phoenix is entering the ‘price-it-right-or-sit’ zone. Don’t expect bidding wars unless you’re in a hot pocket with killer curb appeal. But also—don’t panic sell. The long-term fundamentals are strong here. Buy smart. Sell smarter. And if you’re not sure, call your insider.”
✅ Bottom Line
The national market is sending mixed signals. Most experts expect modest price growth or slight declines. Phoenix mirrors that outlook:
- No crash, but no boom either
- Flat to slightly negative in most segments
- Luxury and prime locations still holding strong
Got questions about buying, selling, or investing in the second half of 2025? Let’s talk.
Sources: NowBAM, ResiClub, Zillow, NAHB, Fannie Mae, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, MBA, NAR, Axios, MarketWatch, WSJ
AriZona Real Estate insider! 
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