AriZona Real Estate insider!

Alright, let’s talk numbers — and I mean real, can’t-ignore-this numbers.

According to data from ResiClub, as of February 2025, there were 119,000 fully built, unsold new homes sitting across the country. That’s the highest total since July 2009, when the post-crash hangover peaked at 126,000.

So… has the housing market flipped?

Well, sort of.

Let’s break it down the AZ Real Estate Insider way — no hype, no fear-mongering, just what this means if you’re buying, selling, or investing right now.

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📊 The Inventory Surge Is Real

ResiClub tracked unsold, completed new homes each February going back to 2018 — and let’s just say 2025 is on a whole new level:

• 2018: 63,000
• 2019: 75,000
• 2020: 77,000
• 2021: 39,000
• 2022: 31,000 (peak pandemic frenzy)
• 2023: 70,000
• 2024: 88,000
• 2025: 119,000 🚨

That’s nearly 4x more inventory than we had just two years ago. And the biggest spikes? They’re happening right here in the Sun Belt — Arizona included.

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🛠️ Builders Built — But Buyers Pumped the Brakes

Homebuilders went pedal to the metal over the past few years, thinking demand would keep soaring. But with mortgage rates pushing 7%, a lot of buyers have either hit pause or gotten super picky.

And now we’ve got thousands of finished, move-in-ready homes just sitting there. Not dirt lots. Not frames. Done. Waiting. Builders hate that. Empty inventory is expensive — and that’s where your opportunity comes in.

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💸 Incentives Are Back — and They’re Juicy

Buyers, pay attention: builders are motivated.

We’re seeing incentives like…

• Temporary and permanent rate buydowns
• Closing cost assistance
• Free or upgraded finishes
• Lower base prices
• Or some combo of all the above

If you’re looking for a deal and don’t mind being in a new subdivision or on the city’s edge, this could be the best setup we’ve seen in years.

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🏠 Sellers, You’ve Got Competition

If you’re listing a resale property right now, especially in outer areas like Buckeye, Queen Creek, or parts of Mesa, you’re not just competing with your neighbor — you’re competing with new builds that come with warranties, incentives, and shiny sales centers.

In this market, pricing, prep, and presentation matter more than ever. You’ve got to make buyers choose you — or risk sitting right alongside the builders.

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📍 What’s the Move in Metro Phoenix?

Infill areas — think Tempe, Arcadia, Central Phoenix, Paradise Valley — still have strong demand and tight supply. But on the fringes, inventory is creeping up, and builders are cutting deals to keep momentum going.

So no, this isn’t 2008. But it’s not 2021 either. It’s a shift — and if you know how to play it, it’s a window.

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🎯 Final Word from the Insider

The market didn’t crash. But it did shift. And in that shift, there’s opportunity.

Buyers, you have leverage.
Sellers, you’ve got to step it up.
And if you’re on the sidelines? Don’t stay there too long.

If you want help navigating this market — or just want to run a strategy play — Just Ask.