I believe the trends I’ll discuss apply to markets across the United States, but since I’m based in the Phoenix, Arizona area, my experience is focused on this region. In this post, I’ll highlight key opportunities for homebuyers specifically in Phoenix, Scottsdale, and the surrounding cities of Maricopa County as we move into the fourth quarter of 2024.
As we enter the fourth quarter of 2024—what I like to call the holiday season—Phoenix, Scottsdale, and the rest of Maricopa County present unique opportunities for savvy homebuyers. With recent interest rate cuts, motivated sellers, and reduced competition, this season is perfect time to snag a great deal.
Fed Rate Cuts Are a Game-Changer
On September 18, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points, bringing optimism to the housing market. Mortgage rates are currently at 6.2%, and by year-end, we may see them dip below 6%. Even if rates hover around 6%, this still presents a chance for buyers to secure better financing terms.
While rate cuts often correlate with economic slowdowns, the Phoenix housing market doesn’t show signs of a crash. Tax records indicate around 830 foreclosures in 2024, but most won’t hit the open market, either being sold at auction or in bulk sales. With fewer than 20 REO listings on ARMLS, a flood of distressed properties is highly unlikely.
Motivated Sellers and Builders Eager to Close Deals
In Q4, many sellers aim to close deals for tax purposes, and this motivation creates opportunities for buyers to negotiate favorable terms. Sellers who list now are serious about selling, as they’d otherwise wait until the busier first or second quarter of 2025. This urgency often translates into more flexibility on price and terms, putting buyers in a strong position.
Not only are individual sellers eager to close by year-end, but new home builders are also pushing hard to clear inventory. Builders want to reduce their tax burden, which means they may offer even better deals if you can close by December 31. If you’ve been paying attention to your inbox, you’ll notice many new home builders are advertising huge discounts on already built homes. They’re also offering mortgage rates far lower than the standard market rate—some as low as 4.99%! These incentives can significantly reduce your costs, making now an ideal time to consider a new home.
Fewer Buyers, More Leverage
The holiday season tends to slow down the real estate market as many buyers focus on family, travel, and celebrations rather than house hunting. This reduction in competition means fewer bidding wars, allowing buyers to negotiate better deals. In Scottsdale, particularly, many out-of-town buyers wait until after the holidays, creating an even greater opportunity for local buyers to move in with less pressure.
Real estate during the holidays also brings out the emotional side of transactions. While it’s important to avoid tactics like “buyer love letters” (as they can violate fair housing laws), making an emotional connection with sellers can still work in your favor. Sellers may be more willing to negotiate during the holiday season, driven by the festive mood and their desire to move forward with their plans.
No Crash in Sight
If you’re holding out for a housing crash, the data suggests otherwise. Maricopa County has seen about 830 single-family foreclosures this year, but most of these properties won’t even reach the open market. With fewer than 20 REO listings currently available, there’s little evidence to support a significant downturn in the market.
Hire an Experienced Agent to Maximize Your Advantage
Navigating today’s real estate market requires an experienced agent who can help you capitalize on recent changes. As your agent, I advise you not to be afraid of making a lowball offer, but it’s equally important to “read the room.” Understanding seller motivations can make or break a deal. A skilled agent can pick up on a seller’s motivations not just through body language but even over the phone, by listening carefully to the seller’s agent and picking up subtle clues. Let the seller’s agent do the talking—if you pay attention, you’ll often uncover what will help get the deal done.
Holiday Bonus: The Perfect Time to Buy
With rate cuts, motivated sellers, and fewer buyers in the market, Q4 always offers the perfect window for getting a killer deal on a home in Phoenix/Scottsdale area. In fact, some of my best deals have come during this time. One of my most memorable transactions closed right before the end of December, securing an amazing price for my client. While I can’t guarantee you’ll snag a deal like that, if there’s ever a time to try and see what happens, this is it.
Have you ever bought a home during the holiday season? Did you snag a great deal, or did you find that sellers weren’t budging on price? I’d love to hear about your experiences—share your story in the comments below! Whether you scored a killer bargain or ran into challenges, your insights can help others navigate this exciting time of year.
Whether you’re looking at resale homes, condos, or taking advantage of new home builder discounts and special mortgage rates, now is the time to act. Don’t wait for the new year to make your move—reach out today, and let’s find you that perfect home for the holidays!
AriZona Real Estate insider! 
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